top of page
Writer's pictureEuropean Waves

Donald Trump’s victory - why he got re-elected and how the world reacted to it

On November 5, the United States of America voted for their new president - and chose a previous one. Donald J. Trump, business-mogul, media personality, 45th US president, and convicted felon, will lead the country as its 47th president. With 312 to 226 electoral college votes, the Republican victory over Vice President and Democrat candidate Kamala Harris was clearer than expected by most. This article first analyzes the reasons for this decisive victory and why all current Swing States swung right this time, before turning towards the global sphere and looking at how other parts of the world have reacted to Trump’s victory.


Authors: Maria Ziaja, Aieshah Balmori, Aline Gil, Ana Sánchez Antelo, Rutendo Mukono, Imogen Wymer, Céleste Nonnenmacher, Tilman Voss


Donald Trump’s decisive election day victory has made for a historic political comeback that has shocked many. With unified Republican control of Washington and the first Republican-won popular vote in 20 years, the election outcome is a disruption that subverted expectations and will likely push the U.S. in a radically conservative, nativist direction. Trump’s staggering victory over Kamala Harris was multifactorial, but a look into internal U.S. dynamics reveals a social climate conducive to populist rise.


Generally speaking, Trump was able to capitalize on a widely dissatisfied American electorate. Economic stagnation has resulted in persistent high prices, a housing crisis, and raised interest rates (leading to high borrowing costs), which ranked as top issues among voters. This falls in line with a broader global trend of post-pandemic inflation, economic outsourcing, and slowed growth. Harris was unable to separate herself from Biden’s poorly-perceived economic performance (or highlight how the past four years actually saw gradual economic recovery) and did not convince enough Americans that she had a strong plan moving forward. More were swayed by Trump’s promises of high tariffs, tax cuts, and an “America first” approach.


Another resounding factor behind Trump’s victory lies with male voters. Men in every age group showed up for Trump, including in unexpected demographics such as Latinos. This followed a rigorous male-focused campaign, including Trump’s appearance on numerous male-facing podcasts, a UFC feature, and the hypermasculine undertones of the Republican National Convention. At the same time, Trump distanced himself from a potential federal abortion ban and the ultra-conservative social reforms known as Project 2025, managing to redirect questions about women’s issues and ultimately retain a large part of the white female vote.  


Immigration also featured heavily in Trump’s campaign rhetoric, as he promised to crack down on the border and placed mass deportations, increased border spending, and federal raids among his foremost policy agendas. He simultaneously blamed Harris for the surge in border crossings during the Biden Administration and incited fear that she would defund immigration enforcement if in office. 


Trump’s xenophobic, chauvinist rhetoric falls into a larger trend of far-right extremism, nationalism, and polarization increasingly plaguing American politics. Rising populist sentiments have emerged as distrust in government and media, disinformation, and political gridlock are at an all-time high. These forces worked in Trump’s favor, who once again managed to portray himself as distanced from political institutions and bureaucracy. His anti-establishment guise was reinforced through various avenues, from non-conventional media appearances, to aggressive outreach through independent expenditure-only committees, to rampant conspiracy theories spread by Elon Musk’s X platform. Trump was even able to rally support by reframing his numerous criminal convictions as attempts to silence him from the so-called “deep state.” Harris, on the other hand, may have suffered from appearing too elite based on the circumstances of her late nomination, unanimously decided by the Democratic party without time for public input, as well as extensive celebrity endorsements. 


Looking past Trump, Harris’ platform fell short even with Democrats, who experienced a dramatic voter downturn compared to previous elections. The drastic difference in enthusiasm between Trump and Harris echoes a broader global trend of anti-incumbency and political turnover fueled by disgruntled voters. In the U.S., it appears this pervasive discontent was channeled into votes for Trump.


Due to its possible ramifications and the U.S.’ powerful role on the global stage, the re-election of Donald Trump was naturally followed with significant global interest among societies and political leadership circles. Some reactions of different countries can be found below.


Philippines


With the announcement of Trump's election victory, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. expressed his congratulations and eagerness to work closer with the U.S. during the next administration. The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan has commented that it is too soon to decide what kind of relationship and effects the policies to be implemented will have on the Philippine economy and what this means for the South China Sea tensions. During the campaign period, Trump praised the Filipino-American community and expressed support for them during his coming administration. Philippine Ambassador to the U.S., H.E. Jose Manuel Romualdez, has already urged irregular migrant Filipinos in the U.S. to voluntarily come home to the Philippines before the new immigration policies of the next U.S. administration take place.


Under the previous Philippine administration, then-President Rodrigo Duterte was a good ally of then-president Donald Trump and has continued to show support for his following campaigns. Their alliance created a good relationship between the Philippine-U.S. ties while maintaining the country's economic relationship with China. As the Philippines approaches this new chapter of the Philippine-U.S. relationship, officials remain attentive with hopes of strengthening the ties of the two nations.


Brazil


In Brazil, President Lula formally congratulated re-elected U.S. President Donald Trump, emphasizing that "democracy is the voice of the people and must always be respected." Despite the diplomatic tone, tensions are underscored by the fact that Lula had shown support for Trump’s opponent, Kamala Harris, while Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, joined Trump’s election night watch party in Florida. Jair Bolsonaro himself is ineligible to run for office until 2030 due to abuses of political power and misuse of media. Trump’s victory, as the first U.S. president re-elected with a criminal conviction, brings hope to the Brazilian far-right wing for the 2026 elections.


Both Bolsonaro and Trump gained momentum in their campaigns following assassination attempts, and each incited anti-democratic actions: Trump’s supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in 2021, and Bolsonaro’s supporters attacked Brazil's federal buildings in 2023 to contest Lula's win. Trump's victory signals to far-right leaders in the region that encouraging followers toward attempted coups may still lead to electoral success. His rhetoric, which casts doubt on electoral integrity and raises fraud suspicions, emboldens anti-democratic movements in already fragile Latin American democracies. 


On trade, Trump's protectionist stance is expected to impose tariffs of 10% on all imports and up to 60% on Chinese products. For Brazil, a major exporter of commodities and industrial goods, this could lead to two outcomes: increased opportunities to export to both the U.S. and China, which may seek alternative suppliers, and, conversely, greater competition from redirected Chinese products entering Brazil, pressuring local industries and domestic prices.


In environmental policy, Trump’s re-election risks further setbacks in U.S. climate commitments, potentially weakening the climate action pledges set to be finalized in the G20 summit hosted by Brazil next week. In general, Trump will likely consider withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, as he did in 2016, and may target Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, a flagship initiative offering substantial subsidies and incentives for clean energy technologies. On the energy front, Trump returning to the White House would potentially mean a shift back to fossil fuel reliance and a loosening of environmental regulations.


Zimbabwe


In Zimbabwe, Trump’s eligibility for presidential candidacy and his subsequent run barely made headlines, but his victory has been worth a conversation. Zimbabwe has had a rocky relationship with the U.S. Democrats due to economic sanctions that, although not blanket embargoes, had resounding effects. Not many are willing, either, to forgive the callous manner in which Donald Trump refers to African countries. Sanctions have since been dropped under President Joe Biden, and in an effort to further stretch the metaphorical olive branch, President Emerson Mnangagwa offered his congratulations to Trump: “Zimbabwe stands ready to work with you”, he wrote. 


Trump’s agenda may not be advantageous to Zimbabwe, unless, if only, to offset the growing economic influence of China in the region. Trade-wise, Zimbabwe may need to strengthen other partnerships if the USA pulls back. From the periphery of Zimbabwe’s social scene, many are keen to see a conservative take a firm stance against abortion and LGBTQ+ matters. For others, the overall anti-Other rhetoric that has been Trump's cornerstone concerns them. A Republican administration may be less motivated to play ‘watchdog’ concerning the country's ongoing efforts against socio-political violence. To others, however, Trump’s disinterest in African affairs may signal a chance for Zimbabwe to be more autonomous and forge a socio-economic path forward without Big Brother America watching.


Germany


While German society has reacted with shock to the outcome of the elections (in October, 62 percent still believed that Harris would win, while only 19 percent foresaw the opposite), politicians have been quick to congratulate Donald Trump, highlighting the importance of US-German cooperation in their statements – among them chancellor Olaf Scholz, who had heavily criticized Trump before, describing him as a “right-wing populist”. The reason for this switch in discourse is obvious: next to the omnipresent fear of the US drawing out of NATO and reducing its military support for Ukraine (which would most likely also influence the military supply policy of Germany, which has so far often acted in the US’ slipstream when it came to delivering weapons to Ukraine), the current and already sluggish economy of Germany is highly dependent on the US as its main trading partner. If Trump was to keep his election promise and introduce further tariffs on foreign goods, German businesses could be severely hit.


Hence, those who previously criticized the new president are now accommodating themselves with reality, motivated by the necessity described by Scholz as “to dance with those in the ballroom”. However, if Scholz will even be in a position to “dance” with Trump remains to be questioned. With the German political landscape in turmoil following the break-up of the incumbent coalition and the prospect of new elections, the country is experiencing its own troubles. In this context, the chancellor candidate of current poll leader CDU Friedrich Merz has already reached out his hand to Trump, describing him as “somebody we can accommodate ourselves with” and already projecting first deals between both countries he would strike – as chancellor, of course.


UK


In the early morning of November 6th, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer congratulated Donald Trump on his “historic election victory,” affirming that Britain would stand “shoulder to shoulder” with its close ally in the years to come. Watching Starmer rhetorically ingratiate himself with Trump is a deeply uncomfortable sight for Labour and Conservative voters alike, but regardless of political orientation most would deem it a necessity. If Trump delivers on his campaign promise to impose 20% tariffs on all imports to the US, the UK could be thrown into the firing line of a new global trade war which could mean a £22bn hit to export revenue, a collapse in growth and higher prices for British consumers. Unlike during the first Trump administration, the UK will now face these challenges alone, outside of the EU trade bloc.


Alongside these economic concerns, the question of European security came back into sharp focus. The Treasury minister stated that the UK’s commitment to Ukraine is “resolute” in the face of a volatile Trump administration, whose return puts defense spending at the top of the agenda and fuels broader discussions about the UK’s role in European security. With the threat of a trade war and continued Russian aggression in Ukraine, the UK government cannot afford to be squeamish when it comes to working with Trump, whatever revulsion the British public might feel. The genial diplomacy that Starmer has thus far extended to Trump is aimed at harnessing the so-called “special relationship” between the US and the UK, hoping that it might wield some degree of influence over an otherwise unpredictable president. 


France 


French president Emmanuel Macron was among the first to congratulate Trump, saying that he was “ready to work with him, with respect and ambition” - an early statement that resonates with the European leadership Macron is trying to take. During the meeting of the Political Community held on November 7, he expressed the urgency for ensuring Europe’s so-called strategic autonomy, by reducing European dependencies in the sectors of defense, energy, commerce and the military. As discussed with chancellor Olaf Scholz, the president seeks to work for a more united, stronger and more sovereign Europe. One of his main concerns is the war in Ukraine, the possible means Trump might use to put an end to it and more broadly, its implications for Europe’s security.


If Macron will be able to take this aspired leadership role remains to be seen, however. For now, France’s position on the European stage has been weakened after the country’s last legislative elections. On top of that, France’s main European partner - Germany - will have to deal with its own political troubles in the upcoming months, putting the Franco-German couple's ability to act at the European level somewhat in difficulty. Economically, the projected raise of tariffs on European products as promised by Trump in line with his “America first” policy is another main area of concern, as the US are France’s main economic partner outside Europe. Sectors such as aeronautics, pharmaceuticals and beverages could be impacted the most - an unpleasant outlook for a country that is already facing a budgetary crisis, with a public deficit expected to exceed 6% at the end of this year.


Subsequently, as the results give cause for concern for the majority of the French political landscape - except the far right - debates in France are about the lessons to be learned from Trump’s victory. In this context, the most virulent critics are coming from the far left, who are denouncing Democrats’ party lack of program, specifically regarding “leftist” values, and the loss of the working class as voters.



Comments


bottom of page